What Shows Are On The Bubble? Not 'Harry's Law'

Trying to determine whether television shows live or die (and not being one of the people who make the final decision at the networks) is an age-old sport that has seemed to become more annoying as the Internet grows.

While it's wonderful that viewers are becoming more and more attuned to how ratings work, what ends up missing is a full understanding that while ratings are important, they are not the Alpha and the Omega of television programming.

In recent days, with the current season just a few weeks old, some observers have tried to determine which shows will live and which will die. I would sit back and say, "Um, isn't it too early?" But next week, I'll be doing the exact same thing as we head into November sweeps.

While I have yet to crunch the numbers over what's happening so far this season, I would like to ask anyone reading this to do one thing: Quit targeting "Harry's Law" as a "bubble" show.

The series, starring Kathy Bates, sure has made a lot of changes in the second season. Maybe it's good, maybe it's bad. It's still a little too early to tell. But one thing that is not premature is for me to stand here and say, "This show ain't going anywhere for a while."

Last season, "Harry's Law" was NBC's top-rated scripted program, earning an overnight average of a 5.9 rating/10 share, according to Fast National ratings from The Nielsen Co. According to our list of programs, that put it No. 32 overall, and really was not that far behind "The Voice," which took the network crown last year with a 6.4/10.

Since its move to Wednesdays, "Harry's Law" has averaged a 5.1/8. Yeah, that's a 14 percent audience drop from the year before. But is that really worth sounding the alarms over?

A 5.1/8 might be bad on CBS or maybe even ABC. But on NBC, where the network is currently averaging a 3.5/5 over the first seven weeks of the season, a 5.1/8 is almost enshrined as the Peacock's "Last Hope" in capital letters.

Here is why you will see "Harry's Law" continue not only this season, but next season as well (that is, if there is no implosion midway through the year). First, just taking a quick look at how the other NBC shows are doing, "Harry's Law" is not only NBC's top-rated scripted program. It's NBC's top-rated program ... period.

Actually, it's virtually tied with "Law & Order: SVU," which has kept a pretty stable audience this year, but is right now 6 percent behind what its timeslot did last year. "Harry's Law," however, is beating the numbers NBC achieved in its timeslot last year. In fact, it's 16 percent better than what NBC did last year Wednesdays at 9 p.m. That's better than what the combination of "Minute to Win It," "The Chase" and "Law & Order: SVU" did for NBC in that timeslot last year. Sure, "SVU" averaged a bit better with a 5.4 household rating average, but nothing else came even close to achieving that.

If "Harry's Law" wasn't cutting it, what would NBC put in its place? So far, new shows on NBC haven't been faring too well. "Playboy Club" is already gone. "Prime Suspects" might soon be joining it. The Law & Order franchise is practically the only other thing holding the colorful peacock feathers up, and even there, NBC has shot itself in the foot by removing venerable versions of the show -- including the original -- and retooling new versions for no reason (remember "Law & Order: Los Angeles?")

I just can't imagine why anyone thinks that "Harry's Law" would be considered a bubble show. In fact, unlike anything else on NBC's schedule, the audience for Kathy Bates has been growing. The show premiered Sept. 21 to a 4.8/7. But it had jumped to a 5.1/7 the next week, and hasn't finished under a 5.0 household rating since. In fact, the most recent episode, aired Oct. 19, matched a season high of 5.3/8, set two weeks earlier.

For the record, "Harry's Law" finished its first season with a 4.9/8 on April 4. That was a season low. But nothing has been able to top "Harry's Law" in that timeslot since. Especially not "The Playboy Club."

While it's hardly the only factor considered on whether a show will live or die, I do feel that comparing average ratings this season to how well the network did in the timeslots before really say a lot. Here's a breakdown of shows that are up in their timeslots so far:

Sundays
"Once Upon a Time" (ABC), "Amazing Race" (CBS), "The Good Wife" (CBS), "The Simpsons" (Fox), "The X Factor" (Fox), "Family Guy" (Fox)

Mondays
"Dancing With the Stars" (ABC), "Castle" (ABC), "How I Met Your Mother" (CBS), "2 Broke Girls" (CBS), "Two and a Half Men" (CBS), "Mike & Molly" (CBS), "Hawaii Five-0" (CBS), "House" (Fox), "Hart of Dixie" (The CW)

Tuesdays
"Last Man Standing" (ABC), "Dancing With the Stars" (ABC), "Body of Proof" (ABC), "NCIS" (CBS), "Unforgettable" (CBS), "The X Factor" (Fox), "Raising Hope" (Fox), "Ringer" (The CW)

Wednesdays
"The Middle" (ABC), "Suburgatory" (ABC), "Modern Family" (ABC), "Revenge" (ABC), "Survivor" (CBS), "CSI" (CBS), "Up All Night" (NBC), "Harry's Law" (NBC), "America's Next Top Model" (The CW)

Thursdays
"Charlie's Angels" (ABC), "Big Bang Theory" (CBS), "The X Factor" (Fox), "The Office" (NBC), "Prime Suspect" (NBC)

Fridays
"Extreme Makeover" (ABC), "A Gifted Man" (CBS), "CSI: New York" (CBS), "Blue Bloods" (CBS)

If you notice, NBC has as just one more program finishing above its previous year's timeslot than The CW. That is not a major distinction, especially since The CW only airs two hours a night (compared to NBC's three).

So "Harry's Law"? Not a bubble show. If it is, then God help NBC.